It is hard to imagine that the thin aluminum cove would resist the pressure better than the thick ply ........ lots to learn in this game.
Boy, I'll say! I've been waging my own battles with my 12 today. FINALLY making some progress this eve (painting jury struts).
The thing about the aluminum is its stiffness, just as a property of the material. The elastic modulus numbers I gave earlier tell that story. Aluminum will deflect about 1/5 as much as fir (spruce is probably about the same as fir?) for a given cross section and force arrangement. So .025 aluminum will have about the same stiffness as 1/8 thick wood, given the same sizes otherwise. Also, the wood arrangement you have doesn't have a "cap strip" on the inboard side. If it did, it would be much stiffer. Compare to the cross section of an I-beam. I could run some actual calculations for you if you want.
Edit: Another difference between wood and aluminum is wood's tendency to take a "set" when exposed to a moderate load for an extended length of time. So the "dead load" for wood is somewhat less than its "live load" (transient load). Maybe you already know all this, but just in case not - - -
Re fabric tension, I don't think the size of the panel will make any difference. The shrinking process is going to shrink to a given tension based on the properties of the fabric, and that tension is all the cove sees. Could be wrong, but don't think so - - -.
One other idea to save some weight if you want to stick with wood. You could cut that stiffener such that it is wider in the middle between the ribs, where the maximum bending is taking place. Say 3/4" right at the rib and 1 1/2" in the center, just to grab some numbers out of the air.
Anyway, just a couple of ideas, probably worth what you paid for them! Maybe time for another coat of Stewarts on those struts now - - -