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Vans

Interesting. Arguably the most successful line of homebuilts ever. Hope they get things figured out!

sj
 
Sad to hear this. I hope they get on top of it and the builders/owners aren't affected. I'd still love to have an RV-8.
 
As a debated point I’m sure, but once the founder steps aside it can one of two ways, boom or bust.
Rarely does it stay on the same traditional growth path.

Since 2020 the kit companies have experienced banner sales and record level interest.
The laser cut skin issue and the corrosion issue has bit them hard, but from the outside both seem to be products of choices.

I hope for the best outcome for awesome airplanes, but their current stance is akin to chapter 11 - no payments no refunds no shipments.

Keep your fingers crossed. I too want an RV8.


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!cid_008201c906dd$7abe22f0$841D9A53@BILLJEAN - Copy.jpgyup---it`s a FUN machine---hope they can remain in business---Capt Cub
 

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My worry is the ripple effect though the industry. A couple of thousand builders now delaying orders for avionics, engines, props, etc
I was just getting ready to order a baffle kit from Vans.
Also, now the perfect excuse for suppliers to say "yup, similar issues. We need to double prices to stay in business"
 
Farmboy said:
Who is their competition? There really isn’t anyone in that market. Sling has a couple similar but others?


Transmitted from my FlightPhone on fingers… [emoji849]
Click to expand...

That comment struck me funny from a guy who has been selling and promoting Bearhawks. The RV15 looks like a competitor to the Bearhawks.
 
This is thought to hear. Imagine if every RV builder sent Vans a “thank you for your support” check of a hundred bucks, that may help somewhat in their short term cash flow and buy them some time.
 
thaefeli said:
My worry is the ripple effect though the industry. A couple of thousand builders now delaying orders for avionics, engines, props, etc
I was just getting ready to order a baffle kit from Vans.
Also, now the perfect excuse for suppliers to say "yup, similar issues. We need to double prices to stay in business"
Click to expand...

They are just a bit slow to jump on the band wagon. During Covid is when everyone decided to up prices and blame shortages due to lack of workers. Also Don’t forget they outsourced their parts to foreign countries, so much for pride in Made in Merica.

Edit: maybe they should go public like cubcrafters.
 
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Business is hard. Unfortunately, internet criticism is easy.

I hope they come up with a good plan, find a bank or investor to capitalize the solution, and flourish in the future.
 
Steve Pierce said:
That comment struck me funny from a guy who has been selling and promoting Bearhawks. The RV15 looks like a competitor to the Bearhawks.
Click to expand...

The RV15 would be a competitor to all the bush type planes for sure. Bearhawk, CubCrafters, Husky, Legend, Javon would all look at the one model as a possible competitor. Brad Damm asked me what I knew about it when it was introduced at Oshkosh as he was obviously concerned.

While I now don’t expect to see a -15 anytime soon, I personally expected it to be a home run for Vans when it was available to purchase. It looks appealing to me.

But one model does not a business make. Their lineup has been stellar for years. Nothing touches them. My guess is Vans will need a lot more proper guidance than what apparently was provided in the last few years. But I’m no CFO, nor am I a visionary like Dick VanGrunsven was.


Peter



Transmitted from my FlightPhone on fingers… [emoji849]
 
With the FAA"s MOSAIC program some manufacturers may get a boost in potential owners. Hopefully by the time it's available, those like Van's will still be solvent and supportive. Inflation and availability are eating away at the airplane market. Getting harder to keep the buying power. Getting harder to source parts. Getting harder to hire workers and avoid liability.

Gary
 
I remember looking into the RV15 reports drooling over it. I read they were using laser cut parts and thinking I hope the holes were cut undersize and required drilling to clean out the heat effected zone and removing the microscopic ridges caused by the stepper motors that cannot make perfectly round holes. Now learning they farmed out the laser cut parts, my immediate thought was, how many bean counters understand tool path speed? Did they spell out the tool path speed to insure the smoothes cut possible. Odds are the tool path speed was set to the fastest speed possible to decrease production cost. I have zero experience with CNC laser machines. But have a lot of experience with water jets. Tool path speeds really change the smoothness of the cut. That probably translates to laser cut parts. Unfortunately it sounds like this is a systemic failure created by a risk profit motivated administration management, wherein bean counters over ruled the craftsmen and engineers whose argument fell on deaf ears.


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Mark_Moyle said:
I remember looking into the RV15 reports drooling over it. I read they were using laser cut parts and thinking I hope the holes were cut undersize and required drilling to clean out the heat effected zone and removing the microscopic ridges caused by the stepper motors that cannot make perfectly round holes. Now learning they farmed out the laser cut parts, my immediate thought was, how many bean counters understand tool path speed? Did they spell out the tool path speed to insure the smoothes cut possible. Odds are the tool path speed was set to the fastest speed possible to decrease production cost. I have zero experience with CNC laser machines. But have a lot of experience with water jets. Tool path speeds really change the smoothness of the cut. That probably translates to laser cut parts. Unfortunately it sounds like this is a systemic failure created by a risk profit motivated administration management, wherein bean counters over ruled the craftsmen and engineers whose argument fell on deaf ears.


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Click to expand...
That seems to happen all too often doesn’t it?
 
IMO, they have too many models, scattered all over the board. Stick with the most popular couple of models, and make them perfect with R&D. i.e. RV-8 and one side-by-side similar. Option of nose or tailwheel that’s it. If someone wants a -12 or -14 sell the plans but don’t invest in the hardware.

That RV-15 would/is their saving grace now. I’d buy one.
 
AKjurnees, I would debate the -15 being the saving grace, but it would help. Vans has a huge following and current market for the existing (no investment needed) models. The -10 is a huge piece of the pie. Goes toe to toe with a Cirrus. The -8 is very popular. The -7 is still being built. I’d have to take a hard look at the numbers but maybe drop the 4 and 6?
My point that I’m trying to make is I think the existing RV sales market is way bigger than just future -15 sales.


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Farmboy said:
AKjurnees, I would debate the -15 being the saving grace, but it would help. Vans has a huge following and current market for the existing (no investment needed) models. The -10 is a huge piece of the pie. Goes toe to toe with a Cirrus. The -8 is very popular. The -7 is still being built. I’d have to take a hard look at the numbers but maybe drop the 4 and 6?
My point that I’m trying to make is I think the existing RV sales market is way bigger than just future -15 sales.


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Click to expand...

You may be right, the BushBro fad could be over soon. Seeing a lot of big tire aircraft for sale cheap.
 
Mark_Moyle said:
I remember looking into the RV15 reports drooling over it. I read they were using laser cut parts and thinking I hope the holes were cut undersize and required drilling to clean out the heat effected zone and removing the microscopic ridges caused by the stepper motors that cannot make perfectly round holes. Now learning they farmed out the laser cut parts, my immediate thought was, how many bean counters understand tool path speed? Did they spell out the tool path speed to insure the smoothes cut possible. Odds are the tool path speed was set to the fastest speed possible to decrease production cost. I have zero experience with CNC laser machines. But have a lot of experience with water jets. Tool path speeds really change the smoothness of the cut. That probably translates to laser cut parts. Unfortunately it sounds like this is a systemic failure created by a risk profit motivated administration management, wherein bean counters over ruled the craftsmen and engineers whose argument fell on deaf ears.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro
Click to expand...
I have seen the engineers specify things and someone down the line is smarter and that is where the problems start. Years of dinner conversations with my Dad, retired Cummins engineer and privy to some Air Tractor stuff. The marketing people were the ones that set my dad off. They would change a process to make it easier and more cost effective and marketing would spin it into some latest, greatest bull ****.
 
Sometimes in the quest for production companies forget to count the beans. Both sides of the desk need to talk.
 
I personally see them dropping half the lineup, streamlining the business, going in deeper on the -15, and restructuring the laser cut issues by reverting the old way or getting a better vendor/in house. The skilled employee issue is real. The parts shortages are still real but getting better on most stuff (other than engines.) Inflation is tough right now. The market is getting on edge, higher interest rates, and people in general are being more cautious with their money or not spending at all. These are all facts not excuses, I know because we are going through the same issues right now at our place.
 
Info from elsewhere online.

Somebody posted the actual bankruptcy filings from the court. Van has personally loaned the company around $12 million in the last 2 years, and is going to loan them another $6 million. It also said they owe Lycoming like $600k for engine deposit money they took and spent on regular business operations.



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Well, there is a chapter 11 plan now in place according to the vans airforce.
Info copied from posts there :

Here is a link to download the plan:
https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.orb.528157/gov.uscourts.orb.528157.113.0.pdf

Highlights:
  • Existing equity gets wiped out (including the ESOP which is being terminated).
  • The Van Grunsvan loans totaling $7m will be converted to equity (i.e. Van will be the sole shareholder).
  • Customers who made "priority" claims for their customer deposits get paid $3350 on the effective date of the plan (i.e. when approved by the court).
  • The remainder of deposits are grouped as unsecured creditors class and will get an "impaired" $0.55 on the dollar paid over three years -- a total of $2.7m or 80% of net disposable income through 2027. It's different amounts allocated for payments over the three years, so the payments would be uneven: $860,000 on or before june 15, 2025, plus $570,000 on or before June 15, 2026, plus $1,320,000 on or before June 15, 2027. However, they can be prepaid by the company at any time, say, if its disposable income is more than projected at this time. The projections are relatively steady for $69m to $73m in revenue in the next three years.
  • The company is allocating 20% of net income annually "reinvested in business operations" to hire additional staff, purchase more manufacturing equipment, and upgrade software.
  • Anybody with a "small" unsecured claim under $1000 will be paid 100% within 60 days from the effective date. If your claim is greater than $1000, you can elect to reduce your claim to $1000 in order to be treated as a "small" unsecured claim.
  • The company can object to claims up to 60 days after the effective date.
  • All replacements for LCP are expected to be shipped by November 2024.
  • 82% of customers with deposits elected to sign new contracts.
 
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