Oops, darn it...

[mvivion]

Oh, man, this one gives me the willies. Reminds me of flying Shelikof Strait in my younger years….i was fortunate.

Prayers for all involved

 

[aktango58]

Oh, man, this one gives me the willies. Reminds me of flying Shelikof Strait in my younger years….i was fortunate.

Prayers for all involved

Lots of factors in the weather that catch my attention. Seeing sleet and freezing rain in a report out there in February really makes makes me uncomfortable.

Prayers for sure, hope things turn out better than the factors shown.

 

[BC12D-4-85]

I hope they are ok and had enough anti-ice fluid and airspeed to deal with the conditions.

Nome news> http://www.nomenugget.net/news/plane-missing-between-unalakleet-and-nome

Update but no location yet> http://www.nomenugget.net/news/10-am-nvfd-chief-update-search

Gary

 

[scout88305]

Terrible news plane found

 

[BC12D-4-85]

https://www.webcenterfairbanks.com/2025/02/07/missing-plane-found-3-people-reported-dead/

Gary

 

[skywagon8a]

https://www.webcenterfairbanks.com/2025/02/07/missing-plane-found-3-people-reported-dead/

Gary

That looks suspiciously like a flat spin. No skidding to a stop...one wing broken back and the other broken forward. Fuselage squashed flat. Iced up? Stall & spin...loaded at, near, or aft of the rear CG limit? Ice on the wings and/or tail will effect the stall/spin characteristics which were not flight tested. Yes if it had deicing equipment and approval for flight in certain icing conditions, it was flight tested. Ice forms in various shapes and sizes...all can not be tested. Not pointing fingers, just my observation from the available information. I've seen innocuous ice formations do unexpected things to an airplane in flight.

 

[Sarpy]

That looks suspiciously like a flat spin. No skidding to a stop...one wing broken back and the other broken forward. Fuselage squashed flat. Iced up? Stall & spin...loaded at, near, or aft of the rear CG limit? Ice on the wings and/or tail will effect the stall/spin characteristics which were not flight tested. Yes if it had deicing equipment and approval for flight in certain icing conditions, it was flight tested. Ice forms in various shapes and sizes...all can not be tested. Not pointing fingers, just my observation from the available information. I've seen innocuous ice formations do unexpected things to an airplane in flight.

Fed Ex lost a Caravan 10 or 15 years back down in Wyo to ice. I’ve been told that ice builds on the tires (and gear) and the wheels roll fwd and rebuilds. Never ending scenario. One more nail in the coffin(s). RIP.

Sarpy Sam

 

[BC12D-4-85]

Here's the preliminary track log for the Bering Caravan. ATC would have been in contact until some point. Icing was lurking nearby: https://www.flightaware.com/live/flight/BRG445/history/20250206/2340Z/PAUN/PAOM/tracklog

The anti-ice TKS needs fluid to function, and fluid needs to be available. Here's an early version (and maybe non-current) of Cessna's Supplement 1 to the POH/AFM. Note the limitations and configuration for flight into icing conditions: https://www.martinaire.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Revision-10-Icing-Supplement-1.pdf

The glass suite (typically Garmin 1000 series) has a flight parameter memory, as does the PT6-*** - "FAST" or Flight Data Acquisition, Storage and Transmission. It can provide prior operational data via download after flight.

Now to line up the holes in the cheese.

Gary

 

[mvivion]

Here's the preliminary track log for the Bering Caravan. ATC would have been in contact until some point. Icing was lurking nearby: https://www.flightaware.com/live/flight/BRG445/history/20250206/2340Z/PAUN/PAOM/tracklog

The anti-ice TKS needs fluid to function, and fluid needs to be available. Here's an early version (and maybe non-current) of Cessna's Supplement 1 to the POH/AFM. Note the limitations and configuration for flight into icing conditions: https://www.martinaire.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Revision-10-Icing-Supplement-1.pdf

The glass suite (typically Garmin 1000 series) has a flight parameter memory, as does the PT6-*** - "FAST" or Flight Data Acquisition, Storage and Transmission. It can provide prior operational data via download after flight.

Now to line up the holes in the cheese.

Gary

Gary, are these Caravans equipped with boots or TKS?

 

[BC12D-4-85]

Gary, are these Caravans equipped with boots or TKS?

Bering's are TKS Mike, and the larger PT6 ~800hp+ engines with 4-blade props. They have Northland maintain them at some level so they appear and disappear periodically. Top notch operator with common equipment and avionics suite.

Others locally have a mixture of boots and TKS. One with boots left stabilized flight in 2021 in freezing rain but recovered and returned. They had to replace both wings from stress. The GW is reduced if icing is forecast. Not in that case, however.

Gary

 

[BC12D-4-85]

^^^^https://www.aviationlawgroup.com/av...ent-and-2021-caravan-accident-near-fairbanks/

I'm sharing this to inform and promote a discussion about safety, not to start a rant about the law industry. If interested read the opinion or make your own. If inappropriate, admins remove it or I will.

Gary

 

[aktango58]

Thank you Gary.

A sad day, no matter why, how or whom.

If it is found to be ice being the culprit:

Sitka and Prince of Wales are two places known for high ice activity on the approaches. The company I flew for operated Navajos, mostly due to the ice carrying ability. Even they had some scary moments in the 18 minute flights from Juneau back home from ice accumulation.

The remaining air taxi around there has Caravans. The ice approved Caravansvans all boot the landing gear legs, front of pod, wings, lift struts, horizontal and vertical tail surfaces; hot windshield and of course heated air inlets for the engine...

That is a LOT of ice booting to be done.

Another operation that ran Caravans out of Ketchikan made a few trips to Sitka while I was out there, and they decided that the airframe was a poor choice for the volume of ice encountered.

Old timers I talked with remembered when the Caravans showed up out west to replace the Twatters, but folks quickly learned the tails were vulnerable in icing, and caused at least a couple of crashes. More boots seemed to be Cessna's answer.

For many functions, the Caravan is a great plane. However, there are some well written POH limitations to airspeed and weights, and volume of boots required that should warn every pilot to beware in heavy ice. The frontal area on that plane is massive, so weight/drag can accumulate quickly.

 

[BC12D-4-85]

I'm not a Caravan pilot, but do know and converse with those that have been. The booted planes have been replaced by the TKS anti-ice fluid system. Supplement 1 to the POH/FM (above) discusses measures and the special training required to operate them in a limited icing environment. Then follows real world experience about how they react to various levels of icing and airframe W&B or configuration.

The boots are sequential in operation per control or body surface, and can be auto repeat or manually activated. I assume the TKS just flows at some predetermined level then repeats. But that assumes fluid is available...same for various heated elements being on pre-contact.

The engine has a pilot activated inertial particle separator to reduce the intake of elements like debris or ice/water to prevent damage or flameout. If the power is lost, so is (most?) of the starter/generator's output until a restart is achieved via battery. That apparently requires shedding loads and reactivating the start sequence at required Ng. All the while maintaining 120K plus and situational awareness. Quite a task, the first time of which I'd want a sim to practice and determine at what altitude and time it would take to recover.

As a side note....Textron Cessna decided on boots for the new twin turbine C-408 Sky Courier. Hope they perform as expected.

Gary

 

[stewartb]

Condolences for the survivors of those lost.

The “item of interest” the Coast Guard has alluded to has me curious. The plane lost a lot of altitude, which takes time, without any radio call. No mayday, no oh shit, nada. No prop in the pics I’ve seen, either. Very odd.

 

[aktango58]

Gary,

Ice scares me. I have hit freezing rain a few times, and had wet snow freeze to my plane one time headed to Juneau. I can also remember headed to the Tundra Villages flying the 2000 feet horizontal from the fog bank and watching the ice accumulate like someone had a fire hose spraying on the wings, (it seemed that bad). It is not for the faint of heart.

I have very little Caravan time, and limited IFR/Ice time.

It has been a number of years since my Caravan class, but I do recall that the ice procedures had some specific order, or limitations. We had boots on ours, but TKS was beginning to be enter the market out west. As I recall, TKS is 'anti-ice', requiring it to be switched on before ice built up. Boots were 'de-ice' which required you to allow ice to build up before activation.

I also recall a discussion that in freezing rain ice could build up and bridge over boots making them useless, and TKS, as you elude to, can run out or be turned on late and allow ice to build.

Maybe we need an 'Ice' discussion thread. I view myself as 'high risk' if I enter ice; low time in ice with VFR planes that are not booted. Learning from you guys that deal with it daily is helpful.

 

[BC12D-4-85]

If no radio after an inflight upset, I assume the typical Law of Primacy "Aviate-Navigate-Communicate" sequence was being followed. If IFR he was in contact with ATC-ANC Center. What they recorded will be revealed at some point. But if the pilot lost control and/or situational awareness, then he was likely tasked with dealing with whatever occurred in the sequence above. Opinion.

Read a copy (perhaps non-current) of the POH here> https://caravannation.com/208BG1000POH.pdf Note the emergency procedures and high task plus time critical demands given a descent from ~3-4000' ASL. What...5-6 minutes at 500 fpm? Even less if higher ROD. All the while balancing ROD vs minimum airspeed in ice (~120K+). Contrast that with a similar descent from 10K or in a comfortable sim.

I assume the coms remain active with an engine out or starter/generator failure due to limited battery feed. Either a restart or switch to backup alternator power should provide power to the avionics buss. See page 7-71 Electrical Systems Description and Section 3 Emergency Procedures for more info. Single pilot ops in that aircraft under duress have to be difficult at best.

Edit: And owner/operators are adverse to adding the expense of a second pilot monitoring. Maybe AI automation will eventually help deal with that single pilot task saturated environment.

Gary

 

[BC12D-4-85]

For those interested in the Cessna Caravan's previous icing events as of 2020, here's a summary: https://www.faa.gov/lessons_learned/small_airplane/accidents/N208TF

Note the Lessons Learned. There's been at least two more since this eval, and the latest has the NTSB engaging the NWS for further analysis of cloud vertical conditions and forecasts, among which may be the potential for supercooled large droplets (SLD) below>

 

[courierguy]

Powerlines again. https://www.eastidahonews.com/2025/...n-killed-in-ririe-reservoir-helicopter-crash/

 

[BC12D-4-85]

Bering Air C-208 Preliminary Report 3/19/25 from the earlier fatal accident 2/6/25. Now it's national news and Congress is having hearings next week relative to recent events.

Gary

 

[Speedo]

Bering Air C-208 Preliminary Report 3/19/25 from the earlier fatal accident 2/6/25. Now it's national news and Congress is having hearings next week relative to recent events.

Gary

I hate it when the NTSB uses adjectives in lieu of facts. In the report they claim the base of the beacon had a “significant” amount of ice on it. The accompanying picture showed ice, maybe less than an inch thick. In my experience flying Caravans this is not a significant amount.

If the final report determines that the plane was brought down by icing I won’t be surprised, so my objection to the use of “significant” is probably pointless in this case. Still, I wish the NTSB would stick to facts and omit adjectives that are subject to interpretation.

 

[BC12D-4-85]

I hate it when the NTSB uses adjectives in lieu of facts. In the report they claim the base of the beacon had a “significant” amount of ice on it. The accompanying picture showed ice, maybe less than an inch thick. In my experience flying Caravans this is not a significant amount.

If the final report determines that the plane was brought down by icing I won’t be surprised, so my objection to the use of “significant” is probably pointless in this case. Still, I wish the NTSB would stick to facts and omit adjectives that are subject to interpretation.

The report is preliminary and subject to change. The weather near Nome was reported as >light icing conditions. Airspeed deteriorated below recommended. It initially appears the plane was over gross and fat on fuel for the last leg back to Nome. In the future having a dispatch service available like Part 121 to assist a Part 135 pilot might help with some of the work load. Sad deal for all.

Gary

 

[skywagon8a]

Gary, I found it interesting that no mention was made of it appearing to have been in a flat spin. The condition of the wreckage showed it to be level with little forward motion and squashed flat. Being overloaded, it was also likely at or aft of the rear CG limit. Then with a likely ice induced stall/spin.....

 

[BC12D-4-85]

^^^^Yes Pete that's what it appears. The GARMIN G1000 suite knows the flight parameters and can record same. ATC "suggested" he slow his approach as they cleaned the LZ in Nome. Maintaining airspeed is critical in icing conditions according to Cessna's Supplement 1 in the FM. The apparent initial finding that power was increased, perhaps in response to deteriorating airspeed, and the autopilot disconnected, was similar to a prior event here in Fairbanks for another Caravan that encountered SLD-induced heavy icing and lost control, but eventually recovered.

There's lots of responsibility and potentially heavy task saturation placed on single pilot ops in those aircraft. Nobody wants to pay for a 2nd PM.

Gary

 

[aktango58]

800 pounds of fuel is two hours? (guessing here). Wonder if that was part of the pilot's bad weather 'just in case'.

Rare than having extra fuel in bad weather is a bad thing.

 

[FatCub300]

Agreeing with Pete that if what appears to be a flat spin...that would have occurred potentially even worse, the closer he got to destination, as the cg kept moving aft...the over-gross issue is also interesting in that it's been going on a long time and just cuz it's a Caravan doesn't mean its okay. I'm not picking...I've seen over-loaded aircraft all over the world and I think we all know there's some fudge factor, but it really sucks to see ten people dead over something we all know is a bad idea. I'm pretty sure we've all done it..and when you get away with it there's a natural tendency for the brain to identify that as not a real hard limit and that's how bad habits develop.

Anyway...off the soap box...I don't think the report was very revealling and having flown Caravans a few times, I've slowed them down way more with no adverse conditions presented, but never 900 lbs over gross..so I have no idea what that might be like.

Pretty sure I don't want to find out.

Steve.

 

[Farmboy]

Delta / Endeavor report

https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/TSB_A25O0021-Preliminary-Report-ENG.pdf

 

[courierguy]

I know those powerlines....., https://www.eastidahonews.com/2025/...ng-fatal-helicopter-crash-on-ririe-reservoir/

 

[Speedo]

800 pounds of fuel is two hours? (guessing here). Wonder if that was part of the pilot's bad weather 'just in case'.

Rare than having extra fuel in bad weather is a bad thing.

Yes, the PT6-114 P&Ws in an early Caravan burn around 400pph. The Caravan that crashed had a different engine with a higher fuel burn.

 

[Speedo]

^^^^Yes Pete that's what it appears. The GARMIN G1000 suite knows the flight parameters and can record same. ATC "suggested" he slow his approach as they cleaned the LZ in Nome. Maintaining airspeed is critical in icing conditions according to Cessna's Supplement 1 in the FM. The apparent initial finding that power was increased, perhaps in response to deteriorating airspeed, and the autopilot disconnected, was similar to a prior event here in Fairbanks for another Caravan that encountered SLD-induced heavy icing and lost control, but eventually recovered.

There's lots of responsibility and potentially heavy task saturation placed on single pilot ops in those aircraft. Nobody wants to pay for a 2nd PM.

Gary

Gary, I’m guessing you’ve got access to an AFM. Does it mention a minimum airspeed in icing conditions? My recollection is 135 KIAS, but it’s been years since I flew a Caravan.

 

[mvivion]

Gary, I’m guessing you’ve got access to an AFM. Does it mention a minimum airspeed in icing conditions? My recollection is 135 KIAS, but it’s been years since I flew a Caravan.

Look at post 3878 in this string....Gary posted the AFM Supplement for ice.