I think the break point will be if you believe in slats or not.
If you haven't had a chance to fly with slats, you should check them out. For me personally, I find them to be nothing short of amazing.
The $$$ difference is made up in the fact that the Carbon Cub will sell for more at time of resale and may have a better following then an SQ2.
I think you're right--CC may have a wider market share and better brand recognition at this point. That's part of what you're paying for in the higher price tag. However, I'm aware of a number of recent SQ resales where the owners definitely got their money back out of their planes. I also believe that the SQ will hold up better long-term in terms of durability, IMHO, and I think there are more and more happy SQ owners out there all the time. Both planes are very impressive when you see what they can really do.
Me personally, I don't trust Back Country Cubs to be around to support their product in the future. So far they have been Daytona Cub, Smith Cub, Turbine Cubs of Wyoming, and now Back Country Cubs.
I don't know anything about whether they were Daytona before Nick Smith had the company or not. What I do know is this--since it was acquired from Nick Smith in Canada, the company has had one primary owner. That primary owner remains the primary owner, and he is still very much involved. They were initially called Turbine Cubs because that owner was excited about the prospect of developing a small turbine motor and putting it on a Cub. He was very serious about it, and he put his money where his mouth was. When that didn't work out (they went so far as to hang one and flight test it but, unfortunately, the motor wasn't all it had been advertised to be by its developers), he renamed the company to focus on the company's primary purpose--building rugged backcountry airplanes.
Even their models keep changing from SQ2 to outlaw I, II, III and IV then back SQ2, SQ3 etc. They can't seem to figure out what to call themselves or their products. They seem confused at best with no solid direction and even all the key players have changed.
I don't know anything about the naming thing. As far as I know, the SQ designation came from Wayne Mackey's StolQuest design. Wayne is not officially with the company at this point but, from everything I know, they all remain on good terms (and they're still selling his design). However, saying "all the key players have changed" is just not true. The same guy that bought it from Nick Smith still owns and runs the company on a day-to-day basis, and he has all along. He was one of the guys sitting in the booth at OSH a couple weeks ago.
Not a company I'd drop $100K with.
I wouldn't tell anybody to drop $100K with an outfit they weren't comfortable with. I would, however, tell people to talk to others who have and find out what their experiences have been. By and large, I think most owners of these planes are very happy with them, but people should find out for themselves. I think the complaint used to be that they had a really good product, but poor customer service at times (with delay being the biggest complaint). Specific changes have been made to address those issues, and now I think their customer service is on par with the high quality of their product.
One other point..... hate the looks of the SQ2 front end. I has got to be one of the most un-attractive cowls ever developed. I know it's functional, but it's ugly!
Some like it, some don't. However, I can tell you that the visibility it allows is like not having an engine on the front at all. You can also get an old school PA-18 cowl on a Backcountry Cub, if you prefer form over function in the cowl department. As noted above, that's one of the cool things about the Backcountry kit--you can make it into whatever plane you want it to be.
I'm not a shill for Backcountry, and I'd be the first to admit that they've had their ups and downs in terms of getting sorted out on the customer service side. However, I know they've worked hard to address those issues and, personally, I really do think they build the best, most durable, most versatile Super Cub kits on the market. As I said though, don't take it from me--I'm a nobody--ask the guys who are flying them and see whether they are happy with their planes or not. If the product doesn't speak for itself, I wouldn't buy one either. As for myself, though, the SQ I fly regularly (owned by a friend of mine who has no connection to Backcountry whatsoever) has more than convinced me of the merits of this bird.