flyrite
Registered User
Lyons,GA
23 Sept -- Graying Out
We are watching an interesting time developing in our culture: Age is becoming a determining factor in the survival of certain businesses. They may not continue on because the customers are dying and/or the businessmen themselves are aging out and have no one to pass their business along to.
I’m certain I’ve talked about some aspects of the graying of special interest activities, e.g. the airplane/car/train model hobby market and how it has nearly disappeared. How the hotrod market is mostly gray dogs these days. How the prices of the bigger vintage airplanes have plummeted because younger aviators have no interest in them and the guys with money are going away. As far as that goes, aviation, when placed against the growth of the general population, is getting smaller and smaller. Today the industry might be proud of shipping 1700 airplanes (2018) where in 1978, the number was nearly ten times that for a national population that was a third smaller than it is today. It was a monster industry!
Official FAA av-stats: In 1980 there was one pilot for every 273 people. Today there is one pilot for every 533. That means, when put against the population, there are roughly half as many pilots today as in 1980. No wonder there’s a pilot shortage.
What brought this to mind was a month ago I was doing research for an article on the warbird restoration community. In the process of doing that, company after company talked about how the market has changed so radically in the last few years. They said that for years, they’d be doing restorations for a relatively large number of individual airplane owners. Now they say that those have almost disappeared to be replaced by a much smaller number of individuals who are having relatively large numbers (four or more airplanes over a period of time) restored.
Those kinds of businesses are very much affected by “the statistics of small numbers.” They might be making good money, but a variation of only two or three customers can put them in the red.
I’m hearing the same thing from the antique airplane restoration folks. They’re seeing fewer customers for big restorations because the people who have the money AND the interest are dying out. I’m hearing exactly the same thing from my friends in the vintage car restoration field.
The only segment in aviation that is continuing to enjoy growth and nearly unbridled enthusiasm is the sport aviation segment, as represented by the EAA.
The really sad aspect of this is that I’ve had two detailed conversations, one with the owner of a huge warbird restoration business, the other a long-time, nationally respected antique airplane restoration company owner and both were bemoaning that they didn’t know what to do with their businesses. They are in their 70’s and are looking for a way out but there doesn’t appear to be a way out. One has kids who don’t give a crap about airplanes. Plus, because his business depends on a smaller number of viable customers, he can’t sell it for a number that makes sense (plus he has a HUGE inventory of airframes and parts). The other, the antiquer, sees his business more or less continuing with his kids, but at a much smaller level. He says the people with the money are definitely out there, but the interest level is declining so the number of possible customers is also going to hell and the statistics of small numbers again takes over.
Is there a way to reverse the way in which we’re seeing interest in what are mostly mechanical endeavors declining? Sadly, I don’t think so. The motivation and interest in dirt-under-the-fingernails activities in young people has fallen off a cliff. There also seems to be a similar loss of interest in the historical nature of most these activities.
Whether it be model airplanes, hotrods, restoring or enjoying old cars or airplanes or whatever, an interest in history seems to be a driving factor and that appears to be missing in younger generations. Those generations simply have significant less interest in mechanical stuff. Actually, as is often said, it’s hard to see what interests they do have past social endeavors, sports and the digital world.
Most of us gray dogs have lived through a number of fascinating, golden eras. For those of us in aviation and so many other mechanically-based activities, there have been decades during which we were up to our necks in really wild and wonderful hardware. And most of us reveled in it. Had we known so much was likely to disappear in our lifetimes, we would have dug deeper into what was going on. If that was even possible.
At least we can say we’ve been there and done that. Of course, millennials say, “…done what? And why?” Is that worth answering?
No, it's not! bd
We are watching an interesting time developing in our culture: Age is becoming a determining factor in the survival of certain businesses. They may not continue on because the customers are dying and/or the businessmen themselves are aging out and have no one to pass their business along to.
I’m certain I’ve talked about some aspects of the graying of special interest activities, e.g. the airplane/car/train model hobby market and how it has nearly disappeared. How the hotrod market is mostly gray dogs these days. How the prices of the bigger vintage airplanes have plummeted because younger aviators have no interest in them and the guys with money are going away. As far as that goes, aviation, when placed against the growth of the general population, is getting smaller and smaller. Today the industry might be proud of shipping 1700 airplanes (2018) where in 1978, the number was nearly ten times that for a national population that was a third smaller than it is today. It was a monster industry!
Official FAA av-stats: In 1980 there was one pilot for every 273 people. Today there is one pilot for every 533. That means, when put against the population, there are roughly half as many pilots today as in 1980. No wonder there’s a pilot shortage.
What brought this to mind was a month ago I was doing research for an article on the warbird restoration community. In the process of doing that, company after company talked about how the market has changed so radically in the last few years. They said that for years, they’d be doing restorations for a relatively large number of individual airplane owners. Now they say that those have almost disappeared to be replaced by a much smaller number of individuals who are having relatively large numbers (four or more airplanes over a period of time) restored.
Those kinds of businesses are very much affected by “the statistics of small numbers.” They might be making good money, but a variation of only two or three customers can put them in the red.
I’m hearing the same thing from the antique airplane restoration folks. They’re seeing fewer customers for big restorations because the people who have the money AND the interest are dying out. I’m hearing exactly the same thing from my friends in the vintage car restoration field.
The only segment in aviation that is continuing to enjoy growth and nearly unbridled enthusiasm is the sport aviation segment, as represented by the EAA.
The really sad aspect of this is that I’ve had two detailed conversations, one with the owner of a huge warbird restoration business, the other a long-time, nationally respected antique airplane restoration company owner and both were bemoaning that they didn’t know what to do with their businesses. They are in their 70’s and are looking for a way out but there doesn’t appear to be a way out. One has kids who don’t give a crap about airplanes. Plus, because his business depends on a smaller number of viable customers, he can’t sell it for a number that makes sense (plus he has a HUGE inventory of airframes and parts). The other, the antiquer, sees his business more or less continuing with his kids, but at a much smaller level. He says the people with the money are definitely out there, but the interest level is declining so the number of possible customers is also going to hell and the statistics of small numbers again takes over.
Is there a way to reverse the way in which we’re seeing interest in what are mostly mechanical endeavors declining? Sadly, I don’t think so. The motivation and interest in dirt-under-the-fingernails activities in young people has fallen off a cliff. There also seems to be a similar loss of interest in the historical nature of most these activities.
Whether it be model airplanes, hotrods, restoring or enjoying old cars or airplanes or whatever, an interest in history seems to be a driving factor and that appears to be missing in younger generations. Those generations simply have significant less interest in mechanical stuff. Actually, as is often said, it’s hard to see what interests they do have past social endeavors, sports and the digital world.
Most of us gray dogs have lived through a number of fascinating, golden eras. For those of us in aviation and so many other mechanically-based activities, there have been decades during which we were up to our necks in really wild and wonderful hardware. And most of us reveled in it. Had we known so much was likely to disappear in our lifetimes, we would have dug deeper into what was going on. If that was even possible.
At least we can say we’ve been there and done that. Of course, millennials say, “…done what? And why?” Is that worth answering?
No, it's not! bd
