Shelter in place order

So about half of us think this is no more serious than the flu? Somebody has apparently convinced Trump et.al. that it is a bit more serious than that.

Of course it could be a fluke - it could "flatten out" or even go away by Easter, I guess, thus guaranteeing a second term for Trump.

I personally have no way of knowing - but the data on the TV indicates continued exponential growth of the death rate, with doubling times less than seven days. Seven days is 10% (approximately). Keep your eye on those numbers.

I think one of the issues is the reports that deaths not caused by the virus being reported as caused by COVID-19. If true, that really skews the numbers. Combine that with overall deaths being 15% below the rolling 4 year average for the month of March really makes you start to wonder.


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I agree to some extent, however I don’t how the relatively low number of deaths is related to the self isolation that’s going on. Has it really worked and kept a cap on the numbers by allowing hospitals to effectively treat the cases they see? Or, would it be similar if we all just went about our business?

Being in NY, and watching the numbers every day, it’s hard to imagine it could be worse. But I have a feeling it could be. We are seeing higher infection rates in segments of the population that are not practicing self isolation as well as others.

Sketchy evidence so far MIGHT show there is some value to isolation.

In these situations I think of the story of the guy who stood in Times Square every day snapping his fingers. A cop finally asked him why. He said “It keeps the Tigers away.” The cop said: “Sir, there isn’t a Tiger outside a zoo within ten thousand miles of here.”

The man says: “See, it’s working. “

Rich

Mark,

Agreed. The issue I have with this virus is I feel I have no control of my fate other than stopping everything I do.

I can reduce my risk of heart disease through diet and exercise and drugs if need be
I can control somewhat my risk of cancer by not smoking and taking precautions when working with known carcinogens
I can control my risk of dying in a car, boat or airplane. We all do that as good pilots. No drinking and driving for example
I can control my risk of dying from diabetes. I have type 2 diabetes. It is controlled with diet, exercise and oral meds and according to my doctor even if it does kill me, it won’t be for a very long time .......unless I catch this virus.
I can’t control my risk of dying from dementia of any sort, but none of us worry about that.

The issue here is lack of control. For some people, the risk is deemed tolerable even though it’s out of their control. I just can’t be in that group. I look at this as playing Russian Roulette. I just can’t know the ratio of bullets to chambers in MY gun.

Rich.

Look, I’m not making ANY statements, drawing any conclusions, stating any opinions. Just like to see some facts every now and again as they’re good for me to get some perspective on things. My take? Life is random anyway, we never know how long we have or what tomorrow holds. I choose not to overthink or over worry about things. I think based on facts, my chance of getting the virus is minutely small. And if I do get it, the odds are incredibly in favor of me recovering. Life goes on, this too shall pass, and something new will come along to disrupt us in the future. Everyone should step away from the news (and the keyboard) every now and again for their mental health! Sh*t, look at that.... I just stated an opinion..... oh well......

If you shoot a gun into the air, odds are that it's not gonna hit anyone.
But that's small consolation to the guy who does happen to get hit.

Washington (mainly Seattle & the I-5 corridor) is a CV hotspot. Elsewhere in the state, not so much.
I live on the rural Olympic Peninsula, I don't think there's been any fatalities,
and so far there's been only 36 confirmed cases on the Peninsula, 27 of which are in my county.
But I'm still trying to keep people at arm's distance (well, 6 feet anyway)--
I check several vulnerability boxes: over 60, overweight, high BP, etc,
and I don't want to be #28.
Or the first fatality.

You can talk yearly numbers as much as you want. Cold hard fact is it’s been the number one killer in the US the last three days.

Charlie Longley said:

You can talk yearly numbers as much as you want. Cold hard fact is it’s been the number one killer in the US the last three days.

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There is one issue with that data. A couple of days ago Dr. Birx said that when a person with one of those other illnesses was admitted to the hospital also had the Covid virus and subsequently died of the original illness, Covid-19 got the "credit" for the death. This renders all of those numbers askew. I was watching the press briefing when she said it.

skywagon8a said:

There is one issue with that data. A couple of days ago Dr. Birx said that when a person with one of those other illnesses was admitted to the hospital also had the Covid virus and subsequently died of the original illness, Covid-19 got the "credit" for the death. This renders all of those numbers askew. I was watching the press briefing when she said it.

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It’s not quite that simple. Those of us who file death certificates will tell you that. Fundamentally, you’ll be hard-pressed to say someone who’s COVID positive and subsequently expires didn’t die as a consequence of COVID.

More broadly, this is a scary virus and suggesting anything less is both inaccurate and dangerous. Whether the economy has profound consequences probably should be less a concern than a unified response for the sake of our species.


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Using the word “scary” and phrases like “sake of our species” shows how many people are feeling these days. Times like these make me wonder if we’re better off or not with the internet and social media..... I’ll check back in 6 months.

Eferr said:

It’s not quite that simple. Those of us who file death certificates will tell you that. Fundamentally, you’ll be hard-pressed to say someone who’s COVID positive and subsequently expires didn’t die as a consequence of COVID.

More broadly, this is a scary virus and suggesting anything less is both inaccurate and dangerous. Whether the economy has profound consequences probably should be less a concern than a unified response for the sake of our species.

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I don't disagree with you. Dr Birx did say that. She even turned looking at Dr Fuci while she was saying it.

mam90 said:

Using the word “scary” and phrases like “sake of our species” shows how many people are feeling these days. Times like these make me wonder if we’re better off or not with the internet and social media..... I’ll check back in 6 months.

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Yeah. Ignorance is bliss.


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Wow

Apparently not everyone that contracts the viral disease shows symptoms - now or possibly later. Or at least they're not feeling real sick. I'd like to know more but haven't found a good reference source. Are they immune? Are they being diagnosed and their vitals studied? In other words why have they apparently escaped the illness for the time being?

Gary

Edit: Here's a brief summary of asymptomatic carriers> https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00822-x

Excellent question. I don’t think we are far enough along to glean any real data. I know of a husband and wife who both had it. He ended up in ICU. She recovered with no more than a cold. Anecdotal evidence like that is all I can find. Once they have enough tests for antibodies and can interview those who have them a picture may emerge. But that’s going to take quite a while. NY State is ramping up antibody testing to use as an indicator of when it might be safe to go back to something like normal, but today they have 1000 tests. Next week they might have 10,000 but they really need more than ten million.

BC12D-4-85 said:

Apparently not everyone that contracts the viral disease shows symptoms - now or possibly later. Or at least they're not feeling real sick. I'd like to know more but haven't found a good reference source. Are they immune? Are they being diagnosed and their vitals studied? In other words why have they apparently escaped the illness for the time being?

Gary

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Correct and no, I definitely had symptoms but not outwardly visible. I was plenty sick. In many states the mild cases do not get examined. I got an hour on the phone with two nurses, other than that I didn't get any actual examination. Up in the air if I am now immune or contagious, I would not place any bet that I am, or not.

It's one thing to be infected and unaware, and yet another to be aware but not disabled. That's a question that begs explanation...which prevails in what percentage and to what degree? There's something to be learned there and hopefully it's being investigated as part of the treatment leading to a high % preventative cure. I guess that's one reason why the testing for immunity via detected antibodies is being developed.

Gary

Like all viral infections there is variability in illness severity. It’s true that we are hindered by a lack of data. We still don’t have a solid grasp on the denominator. It’s also true that we all hope it’s much larger than what has been observed, to date. The 6% global mortality rate that we’re seeing right now is staggering. Bear in mind the mortality rate of our annual influenza is ~0.1% (60x lower). Hopefully it’s much lower than that and we won’t know until we have a better grip on the numbers. However, we need to be cautious when making too many assumptions about the great deal that we still don’t know. If we don’t give the necessary respect to this and act collectively, we’re likely to see worsening numbers. As with the bulk of folks, I hope that we see a much lower mortality rate, but to suggest that it -is- lower at this point is problematic.


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Gary
Yes some are asymptotic, They have the virus but no symptoms, however they still spread the virus. You can also spread it early in the process before you have symptoms that is why just stay home if you feel sick won't be enough to stop the spread. Looks like once you have it you should have the antibodies to keep from getting it again but this is medicine and peoples body's don't always follow the rules. They are pushing hard to get a simple antibody test done so we can see what part of the population has the antibodies. Once they have this you can test a percent of the population to see how many have the antibodies. If say 5 percent of the tested group has antibodies you know they could have another big spike of illness/death. If 75 percent have antibodies you would think any viral spread would be much slower. This would really be useful in Nursing homes, you could test the staff and those that are negative for the virus AND have antibodies should be very safe for entering and caring for the high risk patients.
Why some some don't show symptoms? That is not an easy answer, however it is very common for different people to respond differently to disease. If you took several years and lots of money you would most likely find a genetic change in the unaffected patients that block the path that disease follows. It gets in, starts enough response to become contagious, but not enough to effect the host. Hopes this helps.
DENNY

mam90 said:

From CDC website, US Leading Causes of Death (per year)

Leading Causes of Death

• Heart disease: 647,457.
• Cancer: 599,108.
• Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936.
• Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201.
• Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383.
• Alzheimer's disease: 121,404.
• Diabetes: 83,564.
• Influenza and pneumonia: 55,672.

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One thing that gets missed is that our Health Care System is sized for the "chronic" level of issues such as this list. It just cannot handle a large focused event in a single area. NY, for example, is not a good place to need emergency health care for anything right now. So far I feel very blessed to be in a part of the country where the progression was able to be slowed significantly by the actions taken by "Everyone". I'll call it what it is as well, just plane luck so far......

This illness is reminiscent of the story of Typhoid Mary which took place in New York City in the early 1900's.
https://www.boweryboyshistory.com/2015/09/the-curious-case-of-typhoid-mary.html

courierguy said:

And....done. I count 4 layers of fabric, fine weaved, so maybe more then a joke but also half way practical. This mask was expensive, but it came with a 1/2 gallon of whiskey. The smaller bottles didn't come with a big enough bag, so I was forced to buy the largest size, dang it. There was one scary moment at the state liqueur store, 1 of 3 hard booze outlets in my town, they were closed. Scary, of course because this was a clear precursor to the total breakdown of civilization, but a closer inspection of the closed sign told us only the one store was closed, at the other two it was business as usual. This is the first time I have ever bought the hard stuff except for the Thanksgiving/Christmas/New Years holidays, and then just one smaller bottle. But desperate times call for desperate measures.

I will keep this mask in a sealed zip loc bag in the car, and after I come out of the supermarket, put it back in there and then not use it again until I stick it in the microwave. I also just supplied my going to town car with a spray bottle of a bleach solution and a roll of paper towels, and plastic bags to put the used paper in. Plus my shop's box of disposable gloves. Like my underground Y2K bunker, (kidding) I will probably look back at this as being overkill, I hope.

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I used my CR mask for the first time in public (at the Costco, in Pocatello, where about 30-50% were masked) and found it somewhat impractical.

About every other person I passed commented on it, ("best mask ever, where'd you get it", etc.) especially women, and it really slowed down my shopping. Having to explain how it was expensive (but came with a free big bottle of whiskey, plus, it made me glad I no longer wear glasses, as it almost made my eyeballs fog up. Breathability was good enough, though a bit constricted, to make me think that the 4 layers may be pretty effective for me, and others near me.

My family owned a small grocery store in Michigan when i was a kid, so I have a different take then most probably on our food providers. When I saw this huge display of TP, several aisles away from the paper goods main aisles, I had to laugh. Some Costco higher up, thought, "you want toilet paper, we'll give you so much damn toilet paper you will barely be able push your cart through the stacks!" And still,, and this was just one of several stacks I saw, they had a sign "1 per customer." Being Costco though, that was 30 rolls, they DO NOT screw around, I love the place.

courierguy said:

And still,, and this was just one of several stacks I saw, they had a sign "1 per customer." Being Costco though, that was 30 rolls, they DO NOT screw around, I love the place.

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About 3 weeks ago our local Costco had the same thing. But they were allowing 2 per customer. I bought one. Now we have TP in two bathrooms and a utility closet. I've never had that much before.