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Thread: Your opinions of the Super Cubs future

  1. #1
    Alex Clark's Avatar
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    Your opinions of the Super Cubs future

    What do you see as the next 15 years in Super Cub type planes?

    What do you think will be the HOT SELLER for the next few years replacing aging Cubs?

    Cub Crafters ???

    Dakota Cubs ???


    Super 18 ???


    Legends ???



    Alex

  2. #2
    Taledrger's Avatar
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    My personal opinion is that the market in high end Super Cubs is shrinking. That's why CC has put so much stock in their Sport Cub. The leaders in the coming years will be the utilitarian Super 18. A great airplane from great folks. For beautiful showstoppers folks will go to quality rebuilders like the Warrens.
    Alot of the high end buyers that had to have a Wah-Wah Super Cub in the past are now finding versatility of the Husky and other airplanes more to there liking. They don't need the out and out performance of the SC and they like what the other airplanes can do.
    Bob D
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  3. #3
    Bill Ingerson's Avatar
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    SuperCubs

    Like alot of collector cars, the original Supercubs are pricing themselves out of the market. I believe the Experimental Cubs will be more attractive for several reasons. Quality is there, price is good and resale is going up. Performance is better in alot of cases and alot of the parts are much better than original parts. Just my opinion, but what do I know?

    Bill
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  4. #4
    Cajun Joe's Avatar
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    The future of Cubs sucks.
    For this reason I will offer you $197.00 for your PA18 sight unseen.
    PM me now before I am forced to withdraw this offer as the market
    beomes saturated.
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  5. #5

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    The future of Cubs....5 years from now...
    Hmm Legend will do fine, Rans will become a player and lets see....Cub Crafters will still be promising a better Sports Cub..
    Jim Richmond will be living happily ever after in Mexico.......



    Sam

    PS How do the August and September waiting list folks like their new Cub Crafters Sports Cubs...????? Maybe the can have a reunion after the first of the year.....





  6. #6

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    The guys who need a simple, rugged utility airplane to work for a living will start voting with their checkbooks, at some point.

    Husky already has a foot well in the door. Huskies do enough of what a Cub does, and is a current production airplane with a dealer network and factory support, to make bean counters happy. It doesn't do what it does enough like a Cub to make the purists happy. If the Super 18 can make the bean counters and the purists happy, it won't take long for that airplane to give Aviat a run for it's money.

    The guys with a poor ratio of brains to money may wander off in search of other forms of male enhancement. If that happens, there will be a bunch of 150K Cubs for sale for 75K.

    If the folks who need working airplanes start buying new, and the guys playing dress-up lose interest, the price of a decent 40 or 50 year old Super Cub may get down to the price range of those of us who are merely middle class. I own a -22. I would like to own an -18. Neither me personally, nor my small business can justify the 60K-80K price of admission for a 50 year old Super Cub going on its third rebuild, even though such an airplane would suit my purposes.

    I'm kinda hoping CajunJoe is right........

    Mark
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  7. #7

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    Mark,


    Amen!



    Sam




  8. #8
    Crash's Avatar
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    http://www.ykmaerosport.com/production_super_18.asp

    With prices like this, don't hold your breath. At least it uses stock PA-18 parts. Crash
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  9. #9

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    I think you will see a wider gap of show airplanes and working airplanes. Drive around Anchorage and you see it now. Guys with metal liners all beat up and dented from hauling all kinds of loads and guys with prestine, clean cubs that are polished and kept in hangars.

    So where does the sport cub fit? Beats me.

    Either a person wants a plane to fly and really work the abilities or they want a flying dream machine to fly into friends 1500 foot grass strips.

    At least thats the way it seems around here.
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  10. #10
    RedEye's Avatar
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    Need I say more !!!

  11. #11
    Jerry Gaston's Avatar
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    There is always going to be a market for the Gucci loafer group who want shinney airplanes with clean interiors. And CC will fill that gap with their plastic and polish. And there will be those of us who want utility. So for the next five years Super cubs will continually increase in value because the available numbers will be declining. So buy your cub now and hang onto it.
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  12. #12
    StewartB
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    Amateur built IS the future. We have more availability of high quality, high performance airplanes now than we've ever had. The FAA has provided us a category that allows us more freedom than we've ever had.

    The tide isn't turning....it's turned. Certified airplanes' futures are in the fleets of commercial operators. The rest of us can enjoy the flexibility offered by the experimental category.

    The future of Cub-type airplanes is bright. We need young pilots to want to fly these airplanes or the commercial ventures that support these planes can't survive.

    SB
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  13. #13

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    Don't forget the Rans S7S Courier... A potent contender to this group of airplanes. Reasonable range and useful load make it competitive and the price is certainly affordable, especially if you build it. Hey I went to the link that Crash put in...WOW! $185K for a nice -18. I can have three S7's for that price or two if I buy them built with plenty of cash left over for gas.
    The accountant will rest easier for sure...

    Rans is a serious player now and for the future. They actually ship airplanes every week of every month....
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  14. #14

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    I'm with Cajun Joe on this one, and up his offer to $199.99.

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    Steady increase in demand with a few dips and peaks. Prices will be about the same as they are today. Premium Supercubs will still bring the premium price. Amature/Experimental will grow at the same steady pace but only representing a small percentage of total 18's flying. Buy the way, still have New unstarted Smith kit for sale.

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    I think that untill a better airplane design comes along Cubs, and new versions (like CC and Dakota) will remain in business. But there are too many different variables to be sure of what will happen.

  17. #17
    rcsimpson's Avatar
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    I'm with Stewart. As soon as I order about 500 more "test samples" of chrom moly tubing from "SPRUCE" and burn 1.5 million more CF of gas I might be ready to start welding on my own.

    Quote Originally Posted by StewartB
    Amateur built IS the future. We have more availability of high quality, high performance airplanes now than we've ever had. The FAA has provided us a category that allows us more freedom than we've ever had.

    The tide isn't turning....it's turned. Certified airplanes' futures are in the fleets of commercial operators. The rest of us can enjoy the flexibility offered by the experimental category.

    The future of Cub-type airplanes is bright. We need young pilots to want to fly these airplanes or the commercial ventures that support these planes can't survive.

    SB

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    Super Ursus-

    I was temptd to bump CajunJoe's offer, too. I was afraid someone would point out that that's what got us where we are today

    Ain't the free market grand?

    Mark

  19. #19

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    I don't have a lot of experience in the competitors, but I am going to guess the Super Cub and the sport plane variants are here for the long haul, however short that may be.

    One problem with Cubs is that they are capable machines, but they can be messed up with ease, if the pilot exceeds his or her experience level. Leave the sand bars to the pros. Opinion.

  20. #20

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    The future of general aviation will dictate the future of cubs. Age dose not matter, cub builders/rebuilders and part manufactures will keep this aiplanes in the air as long as people are willing and allowed to fly them. The closing of remote airports and other landing areas will be the slow death of the cubs. If your flying from paved runway to paved runway why own a cub?

    Cub_Driver

  21. #21

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    Just had to bump this thread, 12years after it was originally drafted a descent cub in AK is around 80K and I think demand is as high as it’s ever been.

    What are your thoughts??
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  22. #22

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    What are my thoughts? I miss Cajun Joe.
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  23. #23
    Tim's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tempdoug View Post
    What are my thoughts? I miss Cajun Joe.
    Me to

    Sent from my Pixel 2 using SuperCub.Org mobile app
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  24. #24
    stewartb's Avatar
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    It’s interesting to look back at what I said 12 years ago. My future is now.

    Loving the experimental category!



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  25. #25
    SJ's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tempdoug View Post
    What are my thoughts? I miss Cajun Joe.
    Numerous names in this thread that are no longer with us!

    sj
    "Often Mistaken, but Never in Doubt"
    ------------------------------------------

  26. #26
    WWhunter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SJ View Post
    Numerous names in this thread that are no longer with us!

    sj
    Ditto! The guys up in this part of the country it is David J. One of the best ambassador for the Super Cub I had the pleasure of meeting.
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  27. #27
    WWhunter's Avatar
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    Bact to the original topic, I have to think prices have declined/stabilized a bit. 10-15 years ago most baskets case SC's were bringing +/-$50K. Took me awhile to get rid of a bunch of toys and projects to be able to buy another plane and I have found several very nice SC's for +/-$70K. Extremely nice or rebuilds for around $100K. These same planes would have been $50-100K more back then.

    I think the majority of the group on here has fulfilled their need to obtain one and the new blood of pilots are looking at something more versatile, similar to what has already been mentioned. Huskys, 180's, etc. Lots of members of the site have moved up to these types. They have more speed, possible improved comfort, and fairly capable to go most places other that the extreme backwoods strips of Alaska. In all honesty, how many of us are really going to be doing that! Since I have a wad of cash in hand to buy something, these are the thoughts that have gone through my mind.

  28. #28
    stewartb's Avatar
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    The flip side? It's shocking how many experimental $250K-plus Cubs are out there. And that's being conservative. There are lots over $300K.

  29. #29
    SJ's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by stewartb View Post
    The flip side? It's shocking how many experimental $250K-plus Cubs are out there. And that's being conservative. There are lots over $300K.
    I noticed that also.

    sj
    "Often Mistaken, but Never in Doubt"
    ------------------------------------------

  30. #30
    Steve Pierce's Avatar
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    The local CC dealer has sold 20 plus of these over $300K Cubs in the past 2 yrs. I never saw that coming but they keep improving performance.
    Steve Pierce

    Everybody is ignorant, only on different subjects.
    Will Rogers
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  31. #31
    skywagon8a's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Steve Pierce View Post
    The local CC dealer has sold 20 plus of these over $300K Cubs in the past 2 yrs. I never saw that coming but they keep improving performance.
    Those Texan's oil wells are paying off well these days.

    Quote Originally Posted by stewartb View Post
    The flip side? It's shocking how many experimental $250K-plus Cubs are out there. And that's being conservative. There are lots over $300K.
    Quote Originally Posted by SJ View Post
    I noticed that also.

    sj
    Does this mean that only the wealthy can afford a new Cub now? What is the percentage of new experimental Cubs which meet this criteria? This could mean that there is a trend away from flying for the youngsters and those with only average incomes. This doesn't sound very favorable towards the advancement of general aviation. Times have changed from when a teenager earning $25 per week could afford to own and fly a 65 hp T-craft.
    N1PA
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  32. #32
    Steve Pierce's Avatar
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    If you want to fly I believe you can. A buddy and I paid $12K for a PA16 in 1995 and flew it almost everyday. Saw this just yesterday and texted it to a young new pilot I know.
    Click image for larger version. 

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    Too many of these young people want to start out with a Super Cub. I offered a Tri-Pacer project to my daughter and she responded with she wanted a Super Cub. I laughed and told her so did I for many years but flew what I could afford. I still have the ugliest Super Cub around. I have to add the she has grown up considerably since then. Being out on your own opens your eyes to reality.
    Steve Pierce

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  33. #33
    Steve Pierce's Avatar
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    Those Texan's oil wells are paying off well these days.
    I don't think the majority of his customers are in the oil business.
    Steve Pierce

    Everybody is ignorant, only on different subjects.
    Will Rogers
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  34. #34
    CenterHillAg's Avatar
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    I started flying and bought a J3 on a very average income, it can be done but takes sacrifice in other areas of life. Personally I think flying is dying off because it requires a commitment to learning and training over a period of time, not because of high prices. Many of my friends spend far more on boats, hunting leases, atv’s etc. than I spend on flying, but those hobbies provide instant gratification compared to the time it takes to get a pilots license. And I’ve never heard them say $100k custom bay boats are killing off fishing for the $10k aluminum boat guys.
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  35. #35

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    I thínk there is a market for all forums of Cubs and off shoots right now and will still be in the future, some ups and down yes but there will always be some demand it's just too much fun not to be had. Cubcrafters keeps pumping them out and I thought the experimental market was hurting the the certified Cubs but I've been busy building them steady for the last several years and have several more in the hopper now, so guys are still putting money in them too.
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  36. #36
    hotrod180's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by skywagon8a View Post
    ……... This could mean that there is a trend away from flying for the youngsters and those with only average incomes. This doesn't sound very favorable towards the advancement of general aviation. Times have changed from when a teenager earning $25 per week could afford to own and fly a 65 hp T-craft.
    Times changed a long time ago IMHO.
    I learned to fly 23 years ago when I was in my late thirties,
    I was one of the younger guys on the airport then.
    Today, the younger guys on the airport are still in their late thirties.
    Very few "kids" getting into flying from what I see.
    Reasons?
    1) costs too much to learn, and airplanes cost too much to buy.
    Price an airworthy C150 or Champ vs a new Harley or crotch rocket.
    2) just as importantly, as CenterHillAg pointed out, aviation takes a big commitment of time.
    Instead of taking a month until they can solo, and 3 months to get their license,
    a young dude can go buy a motorcycle in the afternoon,
    and be down at the local bar that night showing it off.
    Cessna Skywagon-- accept no substitute!
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  37. #37
    kase's Avatar
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    Tons of younger people flying. Their just flying RJs for Skywest .
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  38. #38

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    That Chief is the answer. They are fun, demanding, and cheap. Their main drawback is the braking system, but if you know what you are doing even that works ok. Just got a 19 year old his Sport license in a 65 Chief. He takes it in and out of Santa Monica like it is no big deal!

    But Cubs are still out of reach for kids. I bought mine in 1962 from saved per diem money. Wouldn't have been able to do it without that six month temporary assignment in Atlantic City. Purchase price - a little more than a sixth of my annual salary.

  39. #39

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    I just flew a chief home for a guy last week, total restore in 2008 and one damn nice job and was bought for less than the one Steve listed, had single puck disc brakes that were a 1000x better then my chief and was a blast to fly.

    I take kids flying when ever I can that's the secret, took my 9 year old nephew for his first ride last fall landed in the bean field next to my inlaws and now he wants to be a pilot just don't scare them or go to long.

    or just let them play and they’ll want to be just like DadClick image for larger version. 

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  40. #40
    jaypratt's Avatar
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    If you want to fly. There are planes to fit every budget. I miss Cajun Joe too
    Jay Pratt
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